Predictive value of normal sperm morphology: a structured literature review

The aim of the study was to conduct a structured review of theliterature published on the use of normal sperm morphology,as an indicator of male fertility potential in the in-vitrofertilization (IVF) situation, and to establish the universalpredictive value of this semen parameter. Published literaturein which normal sperm morphology was used to predict fertilizationand pregnancy, during the period 1978-1996, was reviewed. Atotal of 216 articles were identified by the sourcing methodology,but only 49 provided data that could be tabulated and analysed.Of these, only 18 provided sufficient data for statistical analysis.Fifteen studies used the strict criteria to evaluate sperm morphology,two used World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines and oneused both the strict criteria and the WHO guidelines. All thestudies (n=10) using the 5 and 14% normal sperm morphology thresholds(strict criteria) produced positive predictive values for IVFsuccess. In the prediction of pregnancy, 82% (9/11) and 75%(6/8) of the studies produced positive predictive values whenusing the 5% and 14% thresholds respectively. Aggregating thedata produced around the 5% normal sperm morphology threshold(strict criteria), the overall fertilization rates were 59.3%(1979/3337; per oocyte) for the 4% group and 77.6% (10345/13327;per oocyte) for the >4% group, and the overall pregnancyrates were 15.2% (60/395; per cycle) and 26.0% (355/1368; percycle) respectively. The no-transfer rates across the 5% thresholdwere 24.0% (86/359; per cycle) in the 4% group compared to 7.4%(80/1088; per cycle) in the >4% group. The inclusion of anaccurately evaluated normal sperm morphology count as an integralpart of the standard semen analysis makes this analysis stillthe most cost-effective means of evaluating the male factor.