| 季节周期回归模型在预测肺结核发病率中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 张建旭,赵锋辉. 季节周期回归模型在预测肺结核发病率中的应用[J]. 国外医学:医学地理分册, 2012, 33(1): 40-42. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-8883.2012.01.010 |
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| 作者姓名： | 张建旭 赵锋辉 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.甘肃省张掖市甘州区疾病预防控制中心,甘肃张掖,734000;2.甘肃省张掖市甘州区疾病预防控制中心,甘肃张掖,734000 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的 探讨季节周期回归模型在肺结核预测方面的应用.方法 收集2005～2010年肺结核的发病资料,利用Excel软件建立季节周期回归模型,对肺结核的发病率进行预测.结果 肺结核的发病与时间序列存在明显的长期趋势,符合用季节周期回归模型进行发病趋势预测的条件;通过模型分析,预测出2011年1～3月份的发病率分别为293.07/10万、229.22/10万和362.89/10万.结论 利用Excel软件建立季节周期回归模型预测肺结核的发病,简单实用,值得在基层推广应用.
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| 关 键 词： | 结核,肺 季节周期回归模型 预测 |
Application of seasonal trend regression model on prediction of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence |
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| ZHANG Jian-xu , ZHAO Feng-hui. Application of seasonal trend regression model on prediction of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence[J]. Foreign Medical Sciences(Section of Medgeography), 2012, 33(1): 40-42. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-8883.2012.01.010 |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Jian-xu ZHAO Feng-hui |
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| Affiliation: | (Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Ganzhou District,Zhangye 734000,China) |
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| Abstract: | Objective To explore the application of seasonal trend regression model on prediction of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence. Methods we collected the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis from 2005 to 2010,and establish the seasonal trend regression model by excel soft to predict the incidence of frist 1-3 month of 2011.Results There was secular trend between incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis and feasibility,and it fitted to predict the incidence by seasonal trend regression model; we predict the incidence of frist 1-3 month of 2011,its 293.07/100000,229.22/100000 and 362.89/100000. Gonclusion To establish the seasonal trend regression model by excel soft to predict the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis is easy compared with other model,we should using it at the grass-roots CDC. |
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| Keywords: | tuberculosis, pulmonary seasonal trend regression model prediction |
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