Critical determinants of endurance performance in middle-aged and elderly endurance runners with heterogeneous training habits

Summary The current investigation was designed to determine which factor or what combination of factors would best account for distance running performance in middle-aged and elderly runners (mean age 57.5 years SD±9.7) with heterogeneous training habits. Among 35 independent variables which were arbitrarily selected as possible prerequisites in the distance running performance of these runners, oxygen uptake at lactate threshold (LT) (r=0.781∼0.889), maximal oxygen uptake (r=0.751∼0.886), and chronological age (r=−0.736∼−0.886) were found to be the 3 predictor variables showing the highest correlations with the mean running velocity at 5 km (V _{5 km}), 10 km (V _{10 km}), and marathon (V _M). When all independent variables were used in a multiple regression analysis, any 3 or 4 variables selected from among at LT, chronological age, systolic blood pressure (SBP), atherogenic index (AI), and Katsura index (KI) were found to give the best explanation ofV _{5 km},V _{10 km}, orV _M in a combined linear model. Linear multiple regression equations constructed for predicting the running performances were:V _{5 km}=0.046X ₁−0.026X ₂−0.0056X ₃+5.17,V _{10 km}=0.028X ₁−0.028X ₂−0.190X ₄−1.34X ₅+6.45, andV _M=−0.0400X ₂−0.324X ₄−1.16X ₅+7.36, where at LT (ml·min⁻¹·kg⁻¹),X ₂ = chronological age,X ₃=SBP,X ₄=AI, andX ₅=KI. We suggest that distance running performance of middle-aged and elderly runners could be predicted with a relatively high accuracy by a single predictor of at LT or , or by a combination of either of these predictors with more easily measurable indices such as age, AI, KI, or SBP. The prediction equations which have been developed can be applied to a larger population of middle-aged and elderly runners. Data were collected at the Human Performance Laboratory, Hiroshima University