Calcification Propensity and Survival among Renal Transplant Recipients

Calciprotein particle maturation time (T₅₀) in serum is a novel measure of individual blood calcification propensity. To determine the clinical relevance of T₅₀ in renal transplantation, baseline serum T₅₀ was measured in a longitudinal cohort of 699 stable renal transplant recipients and the associations of T₅₀ with mortality and graft failure were analyzed over a median follow-up of 3.1 years. Predictive value of T₅₀ was assessed for patient survival with reference to traditional (Framingham) risk factors and the calcium-phosphate product. Serum magnesium, bicarbonate, albumin, and phosphate levels were the main determinants of T₅₀, which was independent of renal function and dialysis vintage before transplant. During follow-up, 81 (12%) patients died, of which 38 (47%) died from cardiovascular causes. Furthermore, 45 (6%) patients developed graft failure. In fully adjusted models, lower T₅₀ values were independently associated with increased all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.11 to 1.85; P=0.006 per SD decrease) and increased cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio, 1.55; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 2.29; P=0.03 per SD decrease). In addition to age, sex, and eGFR, T₅₀ improved prognostication for all-cause mortality, whereas traditional risk factors or calcium-phosphate product did not. Lower T₅₀ was also associated with increased graft failure risk. The associations of T₅₀ with mortality and graft failure were confirmed in an independent replication cohort. In conclusion, reduced serum T₅₀ was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and graft failure and, of all tested parameters, displayed the strongest association with all-cause mortality in these transplant recipients.