2011-2020年上海地区犬只狂犬病本底状况回顾性分析

目的 为掌握上海市犬只狂犬病免疫状况、抗体水平和流行情况,评估犬只狂犬病流行风险。方法 利用统计学方法对上海市2011-2020年犬只狂犬病血清学和病原学检测数据进行回顾性分析。结果 上海市注册犬只狂犬病免疫抗体平均合格率为83.8%(95%CI:83.3%~84.3%),流浪犬抗体平均合格率为17.7%(95%CI:15.8%~19.6%),一犬伤多人事件(伤人数≥2)犬只狂犬病病毒阳性率高达94.1%;从时间、空间和群间分布情况看,各年份、各区、各监测场点犬只狂犬病抗体水平存在一定的差异性;流浪犬与城镇犬、示范村农村犬、养殖场犬等不同类型犬只之间的抗体水平差异有统计学意义(P<0.01)。结论 上海市注册犬只狂犬病免疫措施扎实,效果确实;上海属于狂犬病的自然疫源地,流浪犬未构筑有效免疫屏障,不足以阻断病毒在群内的传播,是当前上海狂犬病流行的最大风险点,建议进一步强化流浪犬的免疫研究和收容管理。

Retrospective analysis of the canine rabies background in Shanghai from 2011 to 2020

To understand the vaccination status, antibody level and epidemic situation of canine rabies in Shanghai, and to assess the epidemic risk of canine rabies, we retrospectively analyzed serologic and pathogenic detection data on canine rabies in Shanghai from 2011 to 2020. The results showed that the average antibody qualified rate in registered canines in Shanghai was 83.8% (95%CI: 83.3%~84.3%), but the qualified rate in stray dogs was only 17.7% (95%CI: 15.8%-19.6%). Furthermore, the positivity rate of rabies virus was as high as 94.1% in events in which two or more people were injured by one dog. From the perspective of time, space and group distribution, we observed differences in the levels of rabies antibodies, but the antibody levels in stray dogs significantly differed from those in urban dogs, demonstration rural dogs and farm dogs (P<0.01). The retrospective analysis results indicated that the rabies vaccination measures for registered dogs in Shanghai are reliable and effective. Because Shanghai is a natural epidemic focus of rabies, and the stray dogs have not yet built up an effective vaccination barrier sufficient to block the viral spread in the population, substantial risk of a rabies epidemic exists in Shanghai. Further strengthening of vaccination research and capture management for stray dogs are recommended.