New prognostic model for patients with advanced gastric cancer: Fluoropyrimidine/platinum doublet for first-line chemotherapy

BACKGROUNDNew prognostic factors have been reported in patients with metastatic or recurrent gastric cancer (MRGC), necessitating modifications to the previous prognostic model.AIMTo develop a new model, MRGC patients who received fluoropyrimidines/ platinum doublet chemotherapy between 2008 and 2015 were analyzed.METHODSA total of 1883 patients was divided into a training set (n = 937) and an independent validation set (n = 946).RESULTSMultivariate analysis showed that the following six factors were associated with poor overall survival (OS) in the training set: Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance score ≥ 2 and bone metastasis (2 points each), peritoneal metastasis, high alkaline phosphatase level, low albumin level, and high neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (1 point each). A prognostic model was developed by stratifying patients into good (0-1 point), moderate (2-3 points), and poor (≥ 4 points) risk groups. In the validation set, the median OS of the three risk groups was 15.8, 10.1, and 5.7 mo, respectively, and those differences were significant (P < 0.001).CONCLUSIONWe identified six factors readily measured in clinical practice that are predictive of poor prognosis in patients with MRGC. The new model is simpler than the old and more easily predicts OS.