| 乘数法与定性访谈相结合估计江苏省某市MSM人群规模的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 闫红静,唐卫明,张敏,刘晓燕,还锡萍. 乘数法与定性访谈相结合估计江苏省某市MSM人群规模的研究[J]. 中国艾滋病性病, 2010, 0(1) |
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| 作者姓名： | 闫红静 唐卫明 张敏 刘晓燕 还锡萍 |
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| 作者单位： | 江苏省疾病预防控制中心;南京医科大学公共卫生学院;南京市疾病预防控制中心; |
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| 摘 要： | 目的估计江苏省某市男男性行为人群(MSM)规模,为指导艾滋病综合防治提供信息。方法乘数法与定性访谈相结合。利用乘数法对规定时间内接触/登陆到指定酒吧、浴室及网站的MSM人群计数(r),通过同伴推动抽样调查获得规定时间内接触/登陆上述场所的比例(p),从而获得相应乘数(1/p),计算出估计数(N=r/p),再结合定性访谈确定估计数。结果乘数法通过酒吧估计数为6618人,浴室估计数为9797人,网络估计数为26683人。定性访谈估计数范围为2万～4.7万人。各种估计值的中位数是2.5万人,第25和75百分位数分别为2万和3.2万人。结论江苏省某市MSM人群规模是2.5万人,可能的范围在2万～3.2万之间。该研究采用多种方法进行规模估计,避免一些可能高估或低估的因素,估计的MSM人群规模及其范围相对接近真实情况。
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| 关 键 词： | 男男性行为人群 规模 乘数法 定性访谈 |
Combination of multiplier method with qualitative interview to estimate the population size of men who have sex with men in a city of Jiangsu |
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| YAN Hong-jing,TANG Wei-ming,ZHANG Min,et al.. Combination of multiplier method with qualitative interview to estimate the population size of men who have sex with men in a city of Jiangsu[J]. Chinese JOurnal of Aids & STD, 2010, 0(1) |
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| Authors: | YAN Hong-jing TANG Wei-ming ZHANG Min et al. |
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| Affiliation: | YAN Hong-jing,TANG Wei-ming,ZHANG Min,et al.(Jiangsu Provincial Center for Diseases Control , Prevention,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210009,China) |
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| Abstract: | Objective To estimate the population size of men who have sex with men (MSM) in a city of Jiangsu,providing data for comprehensive HIV prevention.Methods Multiplier method and qualitative interview were used in combination in the study.Spcified gay bars,bath house and websites were selected to count the number of visited MSM(r).A respondent driving sampling survey was conducted among local MSM to obtain the proportion of MSM who visited the specified organization during the given period(p).The multiplier (l... |
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| Keywords: | Male homosexuals Population size Multiplier method Qualitative interview |
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