政府预算、社会及个人现金卫生支出增长率的动态关系研究

目的探讨政府预算、社会及个人现金卫生支出增长率间的动态关系。方法利用向量自回归模型,对我国1979～2006年政府预算、社会及个人现金卫生支出增长率间的关系进行实证研究。结果个人现金与社会卫生支出增长率互为影响因素;政府预算卫生支出增长率影响个人和社会卫生支出的增长率,但从脉冲响应分析和方差分解可知这种影响比较微弱的;而个人与社会卫生支出增长率对于政府预算卫生支出增长率没有显著影响,基于VAR模型的脉冲响应分析和方差分解与此结论基本一致。结论必须加大政府对卫生的投入力度,同时加快城乡基本医疗保障制度建设工作,保证卫生费用各组成部分协调增长。

The Dynamic Interactions among Growth Rate of Government, Social and Personal Health Expenditure

ObjectiveTo explore the dynamic interactions among growth rate of government health expenditure、growth rate of social health expenditure and growth rate of personal health expenditure. MethodsUsing the vector auto-regression model,an empirical study on the relationship among growth rate of government health expenditure、growth rate of social health expenditure and growth rate of personal health expenditure from1979 to 2006 in China was carried out. ResultsGrowth rate of social health expenditure and growth rate of personal health expenditure interacted on each other.Growth rate of government health expenditure influenced growth rate of personal and social health expenditure,but this effect was weak judging from the impulse response analysis and variance decomposition.Growth rate of personal and social health expenditure had no significant influence on growth rate of government health expenditure,the results of impulse response analysis and variance decomposition were basically the same. ConclusionThe government should expand investment of government health expenditure,accelerate fundamental medical security of city and countryside,and ensure each part of health expenditure to develop in harmony.