苏州市恶性肿瘤日死亡率与大气主要污染物的关系

[目的]探讨大气主要污染物对居民恶性肿瘤日死亡率的影响。[方法]收集2002～2007年苏州地区恶性肿瘤日死亡人数和大气中可吸入颗粒物（PM10）、二氧化硫（SO2）、二氧化氮（NO2）以及一氧化碳（CO）等污染物日平均浓度，经时间序列法平稳化后，再运用多元线性回归法进行相关性和确定性分析。[结果]（1）该地区居民恶性肿瘤日死亡率与7天前（1ag7）的大气中SO2、NO2及当日（1ag0）PM10平均浓度存在相关（P〈0．05），其中S02和PM10每升高10μg/m^3，恶性肿瘤死亡的相对危险度（RR）和95％可信区间（Cl）分别为1．004（1．003～1．006，P〈0．01）和1．001（1．000～1．002，P〈0．05），日死亡率分别上升0．44％（0．29％～0．60％）和0．10％（0．01％-0．19％）；而N02则呈负相关（P〈0．01）。（2）居民恶性肿瘤日死亡率与大气污染物日平均浓度存在线性回归（P〈0．05），回归方程为：y=4．985＋3．963[SO2]-2．878[N02]＋0．577[PM10]；模型预测的结果比较准确。（3）自变量SO2浓度标化后的偏回归系数为0．392，对应变量恶性肿瘤日死亡率的影响最大。[结论]该地区居民恶性肿瘤日死亡率与大气中SO2和PM10日平均水平呈正相关，与NO2则呈负相关；控制该地区SO2的污染水平可能有利于降低居民恶性肿瘤死亡率。

Relation between the Daily Mortality of Malignant Tumor and the Air Pollutant in Suzhou

[ Objective ] To investigate the effect of the main atmospheric pollutants on the mortality of malignanttumor in Suzhou City. [ Methods ] The daily death cases due to malignant tumor and daily average air concentration of inhaled particulate matter （ PM10 ）, sulfur dioxide （ SO2 ）, nitrogen dioxide （ NO2 ） and carbon monoxide （ CO ） were collected; then the relationship between them was analyzed with methods of time series and muhiple linear regression. [ Results ] （ 1 ）There were significant correlations between the daily mortality of malignant tumor and the daily mean concentrations of air pollutants （ for example, SO2 （ lag7 ） and PM10 （ lag0 ）, P 〈 0.05 ） in this city. The estimated relative risk （ RR ） and 95% interval confidence （ 95% Cl） of the mortality of malignant tumor for each 10 μg/m^3 elevation of SO2 and PM10 were 1.004（ 1.003-1.006, P 〈 0.01 ）and 1.001（ 1.000-1.002, P 〈 0.05 ）respectively; and the raise ratio of the daily mortality of malignant tumor for SO2 and PM10 were 0.44%（ 0.29%-0.60% ） and 0.10% （ 0.01%-0.19% ） ; while there was negative correlation for NO2（ P 〈 0,01 ）. （ 2 ）There were obvious multiple linear regression between the mortality and the concentration of pollutants （ P 〈 0.05 ）. The regression equation was y =4.985＋ 3.963[ SO2 ]-2.878[ NO2 ]＋0.577[ PM100]. The predicted result was coincident with the actual number.（ 3 ）Based on the result of the standardized coefficients, the maximum influence was the independent variable of S02 on the dependent variable of the mortality of malignant tumor. [ Conclusion ] In this city, there was significantly positive correlation and linear regression between the mortality of malignant tumor and the concentration of air pollutants （ SO2 and PMl0, but not NO2 ）. The key point about the decrease of the mortality of malignant tumor was to control the pollution level of SO2.