基本消除疟疾地区疟疾流行潜势预测研究

目的预测广州市白云区基本消除疟疾后疟疾流行潜势，为指导和评价本地消除疟疾提供科学依据。方法连续对“三热病人”进行疟疾血检及对本地小学生进行疟疾抗体水平监测，结合媒介监测及居民疟疾知识知晓率调查，然后根据以上调查结果对白云区疟疾流行潜势进行预测。结果2011-2013年共血检“三热病人”19958人次，发现恶性疟3例，均为输入性疟疾病例；2013年、2014年对学龄儿童疟疾抗体监测1013人次，未发现阳性者；2011-2013年媒介监测只在白云区远郊捕获中华按蚊1只；2012-2013年居民疟防知晓率分别为61．48％、86．20％，2013年高于2012年。结论广州市白云区从1997年后已连续17年无本地疟疾病例报告，传播疟疾的按蚊在本地区密度极低，不足以引起疟疾的传播，且疟疾血检阳性率和小学生疟疾抗体阳性率为0．00％，说明疟疾在本地区的流行已阻断和得到控制。继续加强疟疾监测，在广州市白云区实现消除疟疾的目的是完全可行的。

Prediction study on malaria prevalence potentialities at the most eradicated areas

Objective To predict malaria prevalence potentiality in Baiyun district of Guangzhou city after malaria been eradicated mostly, and provide scientific basis for the guidance and evaluation of malaria eradication. Methods By conducting malaria blood test for 13atients＇continuously and the malaria antibody level test for local primary school students, combined with media monitoring and residents＂ knowledge awareness survey, then to conduct the underlying trend of malaria in Baiyun district according to above survey results. Results Between 2010 to 2013, 19, 958 blood samples of patients＇were examined, 3 samples were falciparum malaria , all were imported malaria cases; Malaria antibodies among 1, 013 school age students were measured in 2013 and 2014 , no positive cases ; One Anopheles sinensis was seized in outer suburbs of Baiyun district by media monitoring during 2011 -2013, the awareness rate of Malaria knowledge is 61.48% and 86.20% respectively in 2012 and 2013, 2013 is higher than 2012. Conclusions There were no local Malaria cases found in continuously 17 years since 1997 in Baiyun district of Gangzhou city, the density of anopheles transmitted malaria was very low in this district, it is insufficient to propagate Malaria, and th blood test and malaria antibody positive rate for primary school students are 0. 00%, e positive rate of Malaria indicating that the prevalence of Malaria has been blocked and controlled , it is completely feasible to the elimination of Malaria in Baiyun district of Guangzhou city