中国、日本、印度、南非、美国五国1970—2030年计划生育状况与趋势预测

 目的    分析并预测中国、日本、印度、南非、美国已婚/同居育龄女性计划生育状况,为满足育龄女性计划生育需要提供依据。方法    从《全球避孕及方法使用状况2016》(World Contraceptive Use 2016)中选取1970—2030年五国已婚/同居育龄女性的避孕节育数据,通过U检验和χ2检验比较五国1970—2016年间的计划生育现状及2017—2030年间的预测趋势。结果    相比于1970年,2016年五国总的计划生育需求增大,避孕节育率上升,未满足的计划生育需要下降(P<0.001)。2016年,五国避孕节育率分别为83.3%、59.9%、56.4%、64.9%、73.7%,未满足的计划生育需要分别为3.8%、13.1%、15.5%、12.2%、7.2%。同时,五国避孕方法的构成发生改变(P<0.001),现代避孕方法使用率高于传统避孕方法,且其满足总的计划生育需求的比例自1970—2016年也不断提高。2017—2030年五国总的计划生育需求、避孕节育率、未满足的计划生育需要、避孕方法的构成、未满足的现代避孕方法需要均有改变(P<0.001)。预测至2030年,中国将是避孕方法使用人数最多的国家,印度将是未满足的计划生育需要人数最多的国家;其中中国、印度有可能是现代避孕方法使用人数最多的国家,印度可能是传统避孕方法使用人数最多的国家。结论    当前五国已婚/同居育龄女性总的计划生育需求大、避孕节育率高、未满足的计划生育需要下降。预测此后至2030年间,该状况仍有可能延续,因此有必要提供适宜的避孕方法以维护生殖权利。

The status and tendency projection of contraceptive status in China,Japan,India,South Africa and the United States of America from 1970 to 2030

Objective    To provide a basis to satisfy the need for family planning of women of reproductive age,according to the analysis and estimation of family planning status of married or in union women of reproductive age among China,Japan,India,South Africa and the United States of America.Methods    U test and Chi-square test were applied to analyze the current situation (1970-2016) and tendency (2017-2030) of family planning indicators of the five countries from 1970 to 2030,which were selected from open database of World Contraceptive Use 2016.Results    Compared with the family planning status in 1970,there was a significant change in total demand for family planning,contraceptive prevalence and unmet need for family planning (P<0.001).To be specific,in 2016,contraceptive prevalence of married or in-union women of reproductive age in China,Japan,India,South Africa and the United States of America was 83.35%,59.9%,56.4%,64.9% and 73.7%,respectively;unmet need for family planning was 3.8%,13.1%,15.5%,12.2% and 7.2%,respectively.Besides,contraceptive methods composition in the five countries were changed in 2016 (P<0.001) and the prevalence of modern methods was higher than traditional methods.Meanwhile,the percentage of demand for family planning satisfied with modern methods were increasing from 1970 to 2016.On the other hand,the projections of total demand for family planning,contraceptive prevalence,unmet need for family planning,composition of contraceptive methods and unmet need for modern methods would change from 2017 to 2030 (P<0.001).It was estimated that,in 2030,China would have the largest number of people using contraceptive methods and India would have the largest number of people with unmet need for family planning.Moreover,China and India might be the countries with most users of modern methods,and India might be associated with the most users of traditional methods.Conclusions    Considering current and projected status of huge total demand for family planning,high contraceptive prevalence,low unmet need for family planning,it is essential to supply approximate contraceptive methods.