Prognostic significance of an early rise to peak creatine kinase after acute myocardial infarction

Because an early rise to peak creatine kinase (CK) is regarded as a noninvasive marker of early coronary reperfusion, the short- and long-term significance of this phenomenon was studied. In a series of consecutive patients admitted between 1974 and 1976 with acute myocardial infarction (AMI), 2 hourly CK estimations were performed. Complete CK curves were obtained in 102 patients, all of whom have been followed for 10 years. Without reference to their clinical course or follow-up, patients were divided into those with CK curves peaking less than or equal to 15 hours (mean 11 hours; n = 41) and those with curves peaking greater than 15 hours (mean 21 hours; n = 61). There were no differences in age, Norris index, location of AMI or past history of coronary artery disease between the groups; however, the mean peak CK was higher in the late peak group (p less than 0.05) and there were more non-Q-wave infarcts in the early peak group (p less than 0.01). In the first 9 months of follow-up there were fewer cardiac deaths in the early peak group (5 vs 13%), but this difference was not significant, and at 12 months the survival curves crossed. At 10 years, survival was 42% in the early peak group and 65% in the late peak group (p less than 0.05). Cox regression analysis showed that early peaking of the CK curve was an independent marker for cardiac death overall (relative risk 2.3, p less than 0.02). In 1-year survivors the relative risk increased to 3.8 (p less than 0.008).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)