中国多省市心血管病趋势及决定因素的人群监测(中国MONICA方案)Ⅲ.危险因素水平与心血管病的联系

目的探讨我国人群心血管病事件发病率和死亡率与危险因素强度和结构之间的联系。方法对中国ＭＯＮＩＣＡ方案１０年心血管病监测有关资料进行单因素相关及多因素回归分析。结果（１）血清胆固醇水平是冠心病事件发病率的显著预测因素，但对冠心病死亡率无明显预测作用；（２）舒张压水平是脑卒中事件发病率和死亡率的显著预测因素；（３）采用多元回归建立的预测模型效果不尽理想；（４）人群危险因素水平趋势与疾病率趋势无显著一致性。结论中国ＭＯＮＩＣＡ方案生态学研究结果较客观地揭示了危险因素水平与心血管病事件率之间的联系，但在探讨前者对后者的预测作用方面有较大局限性。

Multiprovincial monitoring of the trends and determinants of cardiovascular diseases(Sino MONICA project) III. Association between risk factor levels and cardiovascular disease

Objective To explore the association between disease rate (incidence or mortality) of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and the intensity and structure of risk factors. Methods Data from the Sino MONICA study (1984 1993) were analysed using correlation analysis and multivariable regression analysis.Results 1.Serum total cholesterol was a significant predictor for incidence of coronary event, but had no predictive value to mortality of coronary event. 2. Diastolic blood pressure was a significant predictor for both incidence and mortality of stroke event. 3. The prediction of disease rate by risk factor levels using a regression model was unsatisfactory. 4. There was no concordance between trend of risk factors and trend of disease rates. Conclusion Results from ecological study like Sino MONICA Project can reveal objectively the association between risk factor levels and rates of CVD event , but are less effective in predicting the latter from the former.