1977—2008年常熟市胃癌死亡率趋势的时间序列分析

目的对1977—2008年常熟市胃癌死亡趋势进行趋势分析。方法观察原始序列图特点、序列的随机性和平稳性,确定适宜的时间序列模型进行预测分析。结果 1977—2008年常熟市胃癌死亡率呈下降趋势,模型为Xt=42.7471-0.7910t,系数呈显著性,估计2011年该市的胃癌死亡率15.85/10万。结论常熟市胃癌死亡率呈下降趋势,可用直线模型预测该市的胃癌死亡率。

Time Series Analysis of Gastric Cancer Mortality Trend in Changshu City during 1977-2008

[Objective]To analyze the gastric cancer mortality trend in Changshu City during 1977—2008.[Methods]The features of original time series curves,randomness and stationarity of the time series were observed. Appropriate time series model was selected for prediction.[Results]During 1977—2008,the mortality of gastric cancer showed decreasing trend in Changshu City,the model was Xt = 42.7471-0.7910 t,the coefficient was significant. The predictive mortality of gastric cancer was 15.85/100 000 in Changshu City in 2011.[Conclusion]Due to the decreasing trend of gastric cancer mortality in Changshu City,straight line model can be used for mortality prediction.