| 应用灰色预测GM（1.1）模型预测福州市3种肠道传染病发病趋势的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 官陈平,陈杨,应毓琳.应用灰色预测GM（1.1）模型预测福州市3种肠道传染病发病趋势的研究[J].职业与健康,2010,26(16):1813-1815. |
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| 作者姓名： | 官陈平 陈杨 应毓琳 |
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| 作者单位： | 福建省福州市疾病预防控制中心,350004 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的研究福州市3种肠道传染病的发病规律和趋势。方法将1993—2009年痢疾、甲型肝炎、伤寒副伤寒3种肠道传染病的发病率建立灰色预测GM（1,1）模型并进行外推5年预测。结果后验差比值C和小误差概率P综合模型检验,3个模型等级结果均为1级。结论通过模型进行分析,3种肠道传染病发病率在未来的5年将下降。
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| 关 键 词： | 传染病 发病率 灰色预测模型 |
Prediction of Incidence of 3 Kinds of Intestinal Infectious Diseases in Fuzhou City with Grey Model GM (1,1) |
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| GUAN Chen-ping,CHEN Yang,YING Yu-lin.Prediction of Incidence of 3 Kinds of Intestinal Infectious Diseases in Fuzhou City with Grey Model GM (1,1)[J].Occupation and Health,2010,26(16):1813-1815. |
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| Authors: | GUAN Chen-ping CHEN Yang YING Yu-lin |
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| Institution: | (Fuzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Fujian,350004,China) |
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| Abstract: | Objective]To study the epidemic regularity and tendency of 3 kinds of intestinal infectious diseases in Fuzhou City.Methods]The gray GM（1,1） model was set up according to the data of incidence of dysentery,hepatitis A,typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever from 1993 to 2009,The incidences of next 5 years in were predicted.Results]Posteriori error ratio C and small error probability P were analyzed comprehensively.Model tests of 3 infectious diseases were obtained with grade 1.Conclusion]Through model analysis,the incidence of 3 intestinal infectious diseases will decrease in the next 5 years. |
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| Keywords: | Infectious diseases Incidence Grey model |
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