Trajectory analysis of winds and vesicular stomatitis in North America, 1982-5

Outbreaks of vesicular stomatitis, serotype New Jersey, during epidemics in the United States and northern Mexico, 1982-5, were examined by backward trajectories of winds to investigate spread and possible sources. The outbreaks selected for analysis did not involve introduction of disease by infected animals. The findings indicate that wind could have been responsible for carrying infection from northern Mexico to Arizona and New Mexico and thence to Colorado and Utah and on to Wyoming, Idaho and Montana. The results of these analyses are consistent with the findings from T1 RNAse fingerprinting of virus isolates from outbreaks during the epidemics. The arrival of the trajectories was associated with the passage of a front and rain or passage of a front alone or rain alone. At the time of the trajectories temperatures of 10 degrees C and higher were recorded at heights up to 2500-3500 m. Introduction by airborne particles would appear unlikely as it would have required a source of at least 10(5) infectious units per minute per animal. Vesicular stomatitis virus had been isolated from Simulium and Culicoides during the epidemic with amounts of virus from Simulium sufficient to suggest biological transmission. The possibility of Simulium infected with vesicular stomatitis virus being carried downwind to introduce disease is discussed in relation to the behaviour of Simulium and the pathogenesis of vesicular stomatitis in large animals.