Clinical and statistical prediction: Where are we and where do we go from here?

In the years following the publication of P.E. Meehl's monograph, our understanding of clinical and statistical prediction has been enriched by both empirical and conceptual analyses. The highlights of this period are reviewed with an emphasis on prediction models, in order to illustrate the basic features held in common by these two literatures. We appear to be on the threshold of an era of parsimonious prediction models. That being the case we can now return our attention to the problems of developing better assessment devices and more meaningful criterion measures and of developing procedures that will increase the accuracy of clinical judgment and prediction.