Detectable serum levels of tumor necrosis factor alpha may predict early mortality in elderly institutionalized patients

OBJECTIVE: To determine if detectable serum tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF) levels are associated with higher mortality in nursing home residents. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: The basal serum concentrations of TNF and interleukin-1 alpha (IL-1) were measured in 129 elderly nursing home patients (mean age of 89 years), and survival in the cohort was monitored over a 13-month period. RESULTS: At 4 months follow-up, seven out of 33 patients with detectable serum TNF levels had died (21.2%), and only three out of 96 patients with undetectable serum TNF levels had died (3.1%) (P less than 0.001). The difference in mortality remained significant up to 13 months of follow-up (P less than 0.05). Those with detectable serum TNF levels and those with undetectable levels were comparable in age, body mass index, hematocrit, lymphocyte counts, and serum level of albumin, prealbumin, and retinol-binding protein. When patients with detectable serum IL-1 levels were compared to those with undetectable levels, there were no significant differences in mortality over a 13-month period. CONCLUSION: Detectable serum TNF levels in elderly nursing home patients may be a predictor of early mortality.