肠道传染病控制图法预警技术研究

[目的]为传染病预警系统提供预警方法和合适的预警界值,提高肠道传染病监测预警能力。[方法]使用历史数据建立预警数据库,应用控制图法建立预警模型,确定流行标准,通过计算各候选预警界值预警的灵敏度、特异度、似然比和阳性预测值等指标,并绘制ROC曲线,优选出合适的预警界值。[结果]菌痢、其他感染性腹泻和腹泻症候群预警界值均选第75百分位数较好,灵敏度和特异度均在94%以上。[结论]控制图法可作为肠道传染病预警方法,合适预警界值是P75。

STUDY ON EARLY DETECTION FOR ENTERIC INFECTIOUS DISEASES

[Objective]To provide methods and alert thresholds for Early Warning System in Public Health Surveillance and to improve the capability of Early Warning system for enteric infectious deseases.[Methods]Alert data were based on historical reports of infectious diseases.Control chart was used to detect outbreak or epidemics.An epidemic was definited by consulting specialists.After calculating sensitivity,specificity,positive likelihood ratio,positive predictive value and drawing receiver operator characteristic curve(ROC),the optimal model and thresholds were ascertained.[Results]The sensitivities and specificities of diarrhea,infectious diarrhea and diarrhea syndrome were over 94% at the 75 percentile of alert threshold,which had a high efficacy of early warning.[Conculsions]Control chart can be as a essential method for early warning system of enteric infectious diseases.The proper alert threshold for diarrhea,infectious diarrhea and diarrhea syndrome was the 75 percentile.