采石工人尘肺发病趋势的预测

[目的]预测采石工人尘肺发病趋势的方法。[方法]以武汉采石厂工人尘肺发病情况调查材料为基础，运用寿命表和直线相关回归统计法研究其接尘量和尘肺发病关系，推算出预期发病年限和发病剂量。[结果]采石工人尘肺发病的预期发病年限为28．64a，患病率37．69％；预期发病剂量为1188．44mg/a，患病率66．90％；[结论]利用寿命法接触粉尘量和尘肺发病剂量一反应关系是较准确、可靠、科学的方法。

The flaring up trend of pneumoconiosis among stone - mining workers

[Objective] To estimate the flaring up trend of pneumoconiosis among stone - mining workers. [Methods] On the basis of the investigation results of the flaring up situation of pneumoconiosis among workers in Wu Han Stone - mining factory, life span model and straight line - related regress statistics method were applied to study the relations between dust receive amount and the flaring up of pneumoconiosis. Therefore the flaring up years and dose were estimated. [Results] The pre - estimated flaring up,years of the workers is 28.64a, flaring up rate is 37.69% . The expected flaring up dose is 1188.44 mg/a, flaring up rate is 66.90% . [Conclusions] Using life span model to study the relations between dust receive amount and the flaring up of pneumoconiosis is an accurate, reliable and scientific method.