| 某市甲型肝炎发病预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙聪,;胡乃宝,;陈玉梅,;徐进杰. 某市甲型肝炎发病预测研究[J]. 中国医院统计, 2014, 0(2): 97-100 |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙聪, 胡乃宝, 陈玉梅, 徐进杰 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]烟台市芝罘区防疫站,山东省烟台市264003; [2]滨州医学院卫生管理学院;,山东省烟台市264003; [3]烟台市疾病预防控制中心,山东省烟台市264003; |
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| 基金项目： | 山东省统计科研重点课题（KT12127） |
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| 摘 要： | 目的：对某市甲型肝炎的发病做短期预测,为其防治工作提供科学依据。方法采用ARMA模型和季节周期回归模型在2007-2012年甲肝发病资料的基础上,对2013年发病情况进行预测。结果某市2013年甲型肝炎年发病率预测值为33．501（1/1000万）,第一季度为25．26,第二季度为3．28,第三季度为2．233,第四季度为2．233。结论季节周期回归模型对甲型肝炎各季度发病率的预测效果较好;相关卫生部门应有针对性地做好准备工作,未雨绸缪,降低甲型肝炎的发病水平。
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| 关 键 词： | 甲型肝炎 ARMA模型 季节周期回归模型 |
Study of forecasting in the incidence of hepatitis A in some city |
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| Affiliation: | (1 Zhifu Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yantai 264001, China; 2 Binzhou Medical University; 3 Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Yantai) |
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| Abstract: | Objective To forecast the incidence of hepatitis A, so as to provide the controlling strategies of the disease in the future.Methods The model of Auto Regression Moving Average （ ARMA） and Seasonal Cycle Regression Model were used to forecast the incidence of hepatitis A in 2013 , based on the data from 2007 to 2012 .Results The annual incidence of hepatitis A was expected to be 33.50/million, with the incidence of the first quarter 25.26/million, the second 3.28/million, the third 2.233/million, the last 2.233/million.Conclusion It is feasible to use the Seasonal Cycle Regression Model to fore-cast the incidence of hepatitis A.Programs must be well prepared in spring, so as to control the outbreak of the disease. |
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| Keywords: | Hepatitis A ARMA model Seasonal cycle regression model |
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