Comparison and validation of scoring systems in a cohort of patients treated for perforated peptic ulcer

Background and aims The aim of this study is to evaluate the predictive accuracy of different scoring systems on surgery for perforated peptic ulcer referred to an academic department of general surgery in a tertiary reference center. Patients and methods Seventy-five consecutive patients (Male/female ratio = 64:11; mean age, 44 years; range, 16–85) with perforated peptic ulcer disease were investigated. Disease severity scores and mortality predictions were calculated using the collected data during admission. Discrimination and calibration characteristics of each system, namely, the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II and III, the simplified acute physiology score II, and the mortality probability models (MPM) II, were determined by using the area under receiver operating characteristics curve and the Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, respectively. Results Among the 75 patients included, there were eight (10.6%) mortalities. All systems had a reliable power of discrimination and calibration. Among the systems tested, MPM II was the best performing as far as discrimination and calibration characteristics were considered. The parameters of MPM II system that were related to systemic perfusion of the patient were significantly positive in patients who died compared to those who survived. Conclusions MPM II that predicted mortality at admission is better than the other systems in predicting mortality. Results also indicate the importance of maintenance of systemic perfusion of the patient at the early phases of peptic ulcer perforation.