无锡市气温对非意外死亡及寿命损失年影响的时间序列分析

目的了解无锡市气温在不同滞后日对非意外死亡(A00-R99)人数及寿命损失年的影响。方法收集无锡市区(2012-2017年)非意外死亡与气象数据资料,利用分布滞后非线性模型研究气温与非意外死亡人数及寿命损失年的关系,分析低温、高温在不同滞后日期对非意外死亡的累积效应。结果无锡市日均气温对非意外死亡效应曲线为“V”形,冷效应具有延迟性,在滞后3d开始出现并持续14d,热效应表现为急性效应,当天就出现。低温对人群总效应大于高温;不同年龄、性别对冷、热效应敏感性存在差异。结论低温和高温均可增加非意外死亡风险,冷效应起效慢且持续时间长,热效应急促,低温对人群影响更大。

Lagged effect of temperature on non-accidental mortality and years of life lost in Wuxi: a time-series study

  Objective  To evaluate the effect of air temperature on non-accidental mortality (A00-R99) and years of life lost in Wuxi city.  Methods  Data on daily non-accidental mortality and meteorology index were collected from 2012 to 2017. Distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to assess the effect of temperature on non-accidental death and YLL and the cumulative effects between cold and hot temperature on non-accidental mortality and years of life lost with different lag days.  Results  A V-shaped relationship was noticed between temperature and mortality. Cold effects were delayed by 3 days and persisted for 14 days. Hot effects appeared acute and reached the peak at the same day. Low temperature had stronger gross effect than high temperature had. There were differences of temperature effects between different age and gender groups.  Conclusions  Low and high temperature were associated with elevated mortality risk. Cold effect had lagged effect and persisted for long time, however, hot effects appeared acute and the impact of low temperature was greater.