中国卫生技术人员发展趋势预测分析

目的 为制定我国卫生人力资源规划及其政策提供科学依据,对促进卫生职业教育的发展起到协调和可持续发展的作用.方法 1981～2006年全国卫生技术人员的数据作为材料基础,利用传递函数模型对2007～2016年全国卫生技术人员发展趋势进行预测分析.结果 据预测,全国卫生技术人员总数呈逐年增长趋势,从2007年的4719149人增加至2016年的5333518人;城市医生、护士、检验人员和药剂人员的平均增长速度分别为2.17%,1.79%,1.67%和1.66%;农村医生、护士、检验人员的平均增长速度分别为0.10%,0.12%和0.40%,药剂人员以2.97%的平均速度减少.高级、副高级职称及中级职称人数的平均增长速度分别为2.03%,3.30%和2.73%.结论 中国卫生技术人员总体上达到了我国

Study on trend of health professional resources in China

Objective To provide useful information for the improvement of policy of human resources and the development of health education.Methods Transfer function-noise model was used to predict the health professional resource in China based on health professional register data from 1981 to 2006.Results The to ta l num be r of hea lth p rofess iona ls w ou ld increase year by year in China from 4719 149 in 2007 to 5 333 518 in 2016.The increase rates of doctors,nurses,examiner and pharmacist in city would be 2.17%,1.379%,1.67%,1.66% each year.The increase rates of doctors,nurses and exam-iner in the rural would be 0.10%,0.12%,0.14%,but the rate of pharmacist in the rural would decrease with a rate of 2.97%.The average growth rates of chief physicians,associate chief physicians and attending physicians weould 2.07%,3.39% and 1.27%,respectively.Conclusion A lthough the number of health professionals accords with the criterion of the 11th Five-Year Plan,the allocation of health professionals is unreasonable in rural and urban a reas.