传播动力学模型回顾与展望

介绍传播动力学模型在HPV疫苗药物经济学评价中的应用和计算方法，以期为更好的HPV疫苗经济性评价提供参考。将人群分为n个年龄组和L个性活动层次，建立常微分方程组模拟HPV16/18两种病毒感染在人群中的传播和相关疾病的发生，并结合二价疫苗接种的保护效率对疾病预防健康产出进行评估。传播动力学模型是动态进展模型，较Markov等静态进展模型模拟结果更符合实际，但也因为需要参数多，且部分关键参数在我国暂无大规模人群调研数据，因此用于经济学评价时证据质量受到一定影响。在HPV疫苗等传播性疾病干预产品的经济性评价中采用传播动力学模型以获取更精确的证据，在目前参数不全的情况下，建议暂时以邻国数据等方式替代。

Epidemiology of HPV 16 and cervical cancer in Finland and the potential impact of vaccination: mathematical modelling analyses

To provide a reference for economic evaluation on human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine vaccination, we briefly introduced the application of transmission dynamics model in HPV vaccine vaccination economic evaluation and related calculation methods. In the transmission dynamics model-based evaluation on vaccination of bivalent HPV vaccine, the population is divided into various age groups and individual activity levels; an ordinary differential equation set is established to simulate the transmission of HPV16/18 virus infection in the population and the occurrence of related diseases; and the health output of disease prevention is calculated in combination with the protection efficiency of the vaccine. The transmission dynamics model is a dynamic progress model, which is more realistic than the simulation results of static progress models such as Markov. However, due to the lack of some key parameters and large-scale population survey data in China, the quality of the economic evaluation on HPV vaccine vaccination is affected to some extent. Considering on the absence of some parameters for the evaluation nowadays, some data from other countries could be utilized in transmission dynamics model-based economic evaluation on HPV vaccine vaccination to obtain more accurate analysis results.