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| 肿瘤潜隐期二阶段模型 | |
| 引用本文： | 方积乾,毛建华,杨学志,廖彩森,陈贻训. 肿瘤潜隐期二阶段模型[J]. 北京大学学报(医学版), 1993, 0(1) |
| 作者姓名： | 方积乾 毛建华 杨学志 廖彩森 陈贻训 |
| 作者单位： | 北京医科大学生物数学与生物统计教研室(方积乾，毛建华)，江西省妇产医院(杨学志，廖彩森)，江西省妇产医院(陈贻训) |
| 摘 要： | 从宫颈癌、大肠癌等病种的自然史抽象出一个具有时变伴随变量的潜隐期二阶段模型。潜隐期以正常状态为起点,疾病为终点;其前阶段可逆,后阶段不可逆;状态间转移速率因病人状况而异。用Markov过程描述并求解此模型,进而给出参数估计和假设检验方法。利用此模型基于江西省靖安县12年6轮宫颈癌筛查资料进行了自然史研究,并讨论了应用前景。 |
| 关 键 词： | 肿瘤潜隐期 二阶段模型 自然史 |
A TWO-STAGE MODEL FOR THE LATENT PERIOD OF CANCER |
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| Fang Jiqian. A TWO-STAGE MODEL FOR THE LATENT PERIOD OF CANCER[J]. Journal of Peking University. Health sciences, 1993, 0(1) | |
| Authors: | Fang Jiqian |
| Affiliation: | Fang Jiqian Department of Biomathematics and Biostatistics |
| Abstract: | A two-stage model with time-dependent covariates for the latent period is abstracted from th eknow-ledge on cancer of cervix and large intestine etc. The latent period is defined with the normal stateas the origin and the disease as the end; the former stage of it is assumed reversible and the latterstage irreversible; the rates of transitions among states depend on the patient's situation. The methodfor parameter estimation and hypothesis testing are given based on the solution of a Markov processwhich describes the above framework quantitatively. All of these has been applied to a study onnatural history of cervical cancer using the 12-year/6-run screening data carried out in Jingan county,Jiangxi province, China, and the prospects of further application of the result is discussed. |
| Keywords: | Latent period of cancer Two-stage model Natural history |
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