关于Reed-Frost模型的研究和改进

笔者提出了对Ｒｅｅｄ－Ｆｒｏｓｔ模型的学术评论，并新建了一种Ｒｅｅｄ－Ｆｒｏｓｔ模型的改进模型。该改进模型全面考虑了隐性感染者的产生，传染作用及向免疫者的转化。应用这个模型，模拟了Ｎｅｗ Ｅｎｇｌａｎｄ的麻疹流行和中国上海市某保育院的水痘流行，结果颇为理想。该模型包括基本的流行要因，故能用以解释流行过程，并可帮助流行病学工作者理解隐性感染的传染病流行过程中的作用。

Study and Improvement of Reed-frost Model

The purpose of this paper is to modify the Reed-Frost theory of epidemics with the underlying assumptions of the model including the occurrence of inapparent infections, and their influence on the course of the epidemic. With this model two epidemics were computed: (1) the Aycock outbreak of measles in a New England boy-boarding school in 1934; (2) the outbreak of chickenPox in a Shanghai kindergarten in 1950. The calculated and observed results were well in agreement. A substantial improvement in fitness was shown as measured by chi-square tests.
As presented, the model offers a reasonably good explanation on the occurrence of inapparent infections and its effect on the pattern of the disease.