| 北京市东城区细菌性痢疾与气象因素的时间序列分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 周艳丽,徐文彩,张海艳,马立宪,潘京海,黄辉,刘清华. 北京市东城区细菌性痢疾与气象因素的时间序列分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2009, 24(9): 697-700. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2009.09.020 |
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| 作者姓名： | 周艳丽 徐文彩 张海艳 马立宪 潘京海 黄辉 刘清华 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京市东城区疾病预防控制中心,北京,100009;北京市东城区卫生局卫生监督所 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的探讨气象因素变化对细菌性痢疾（菌痢）发病的影响,初步建立菌痢的早期预测模型。 方法选用季节性求和自回归移动平均模型分析东城区菌痢发病与气象因素的关系。结果东城区菌痢发病与平均气温、平均相对湿度、平均气压、降水量、日照时数、平均风速等均有显著相关,在SARIMA(1,0,1)(0,0,1)12早期预测模型中平均气温、平均相对湿度、降水量等与菌痢发病有关。结论气温、相对湿度、降水量等气象因素与东城区菌痢发病相关,可以将其作为预测东城区菌痢发病的指标。
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| 关 键 词： | 细菌性痢疾 气象因素 时间序列分析 预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2009-02-18 |
Time series analysis on bacillary dysentery and meteorological factors in Dongcheng district,Beijing |
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| ZHOU Yan-li,XU Wen-cai,ZHANG Hai-yan,MA Li-xian,PAN Jing-hai,HUANG Hui,LIU Qing-hua.Dongcheng District Center for Disease Control , Prevention,Beijing ,China. Time series analysis on bacillary dysentery and meteorological factors in Dongcheng district,Beijing[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2009, 24(9): 697-700. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2009.09.020 |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Yan-li XU Wen-cai ZHANG Hai-yan MA Li-xian PAN Jing-hai HUANG Hui LIU Qing-hua.Dongcheng District Center for Disease Control Prevention Beijing China |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Dongcheng District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100009,
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| Abstract: | Objective To determine the impact of changes in meteorological factors on the incidence of bacillary dysentery,in order to initially establish an early prediction model of bacillary dysentery.Methods A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA) model was employed to analyze the correlation between the incidence of bacillary dysentery and meteorological factors in Dongcheng district.Results The incidence of bacillary dysentery was significantly correlated with the average temperature,average r... |
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| Keywords: | bacillary dysentery meteorological factors time series analysis prediction |
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