泰安市蟑螂密度季节消长及其抗药性分析

  目的  探讨差分自回归移动平均（ARIMA）模型对德国小蠊密度的预测，评价德国小蠊抗药性及酶活性。  方法  选用粘捕法监测德国小蠊的密度和侵害率，运用ARIMA模型对唐山市德国小蠊密度进行拟合与预测；采用药膜法和诊断计量法测定德国小蠊的抗药性，用生理生化法测定其体内的酶活性。  结果  2007 — 2017年唐山市德国小蠊密度为0.17只/张，侵害率为7.63 %。在监测生境方面，不同生境之间德国小蠊的密度（F = 5.693）、侵害率（χ² = 590.886）差异具有统计学意义（P < 0.001）；在季节消长方面，德国小蠊密度和侵害率高峰均出现在8月份，分别为0.28只/张和11.36 %。
通过ARIMA模型对2007 — 2017年德国小蠊密度进行拟合，最终确定ARIMA（0，1，3）×（0，1，1）₁₂为最佳模型。唐山市德国小蠊对不同杀虫剂均已产生抗药性；德国小蠊野外种群谷胱甘肽 – S – 转移酶（GSTs）活性与敏感品系无差异；多功能氧化酶（MFO）和羧酸酯酶（CarE）活性均高于敏感品系；乙酰胆碱酯酶（AChE）活性低于敏感品系。  结论  成功建立ARIMA模型，可用于德国小蠊密度的预测预警；唐山市德国小蠊抗药性问题严重，MFO和CarE增进抗药性。

A study of housefly esterases by means of a sensitive colorimetric method

  Objective  To predict seasonal density fluctuation of Blattella germanica (B. germanica) using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and to assess the pesticide resistance in B. germanica.  Methods  Sticky trap method was used for monitoring B. germanica density and infestation rate. ARIMA model was used to predict B. germanica density. Pesticide resistance of B. germanica was determined with residual film method and diagnostic dose method. Enzyme activities of B.germanica were determined with physiological and biochemical method.  Results  The average density of B. germanica was 0.17 and the mean infestation rate of the pest was 7.63% for random sampling sites in farmer′s markets, restaurants, hotels, hospitals, and residential buildings in Tangshan city of Hebei province during 2007 – 2017; there were significant between sampling-sites differences in the density (F = 5.693) and the infestation rate (χ² = 590.886) of B.
germanica (both P < 0.01). The highest seasonal density (0.28) per sticky trap and infestation rate (11.36%) of B. germanica were observed in August of a year. A best-fitting model of ARIMA (0, 1, 3) × (0, 1, 1)₁₂ was established for prediction of seasonal density fluctuation of B. germanica. Different levels of resistance to various pesticides were detected in the B. germanica trapped in the city. The activity of glutathione-S-transferase (GSTs) of the wild strains of B. germanica was not significantly different from that of the susceptible strain; the activity of multifunctional oxidase (MFO) and carboxylesterase (CarE) of the wild strains were higher than those of the susceptible strain but the activity of acetylcholinesterase (AChE) was lower than that of the susceptible strain.  Conclusion  ARIMA model could be used in prediction of B. germanica density. Pesticide resistance is prevalent in B. germanica trapped in Tangshan city and the resistance is related to increased activity of MFO and CarE in wild strains of the pests.