巢湖市2009-2015年手足口病时空流行特征分析

目的 探讨巢湖市2009-2015年手足口病（hand，foot and mouth disease，HFMD）发病的时空分布特点。方法 收集巢湖市2009-2015年HFMD疫情监测资料，建立地理信息系统（geographic information systems，GIS）数据库。应用空间统计分析软件GeoDa 1.6对建立的GIS数据库进行全局和局部空间自相关分析；用时间-空间扫描统计软件SaTScan 9.4进行回顾性时空扫描统计。结果 巢湖市2009-2015年共报告HFMD 6 960例。2011年、2013-2015年HFMD发病模式存在空间聚集，局部自相关共探测到14个高聚集区；HFMD存在3个时空聚集区，这些聚集区大部分发生在城区街道。结论 巢湖市HFMD发病存在时空聚集性，时空聚集性分析有助于深入了解巢湖市HFMD的分布规律和流行趋势，为下一步HFMD的防控提供参考依据。

Spatio-temporal characteristics analysis of hand,foot and mouth disease in Chaohu City

Objective To assess the spatio-temporal clustering of HFMD in Chaohu City from 2009 to 2015.Methods Epidemiological data of HFMD were collected from 2009 to 2015,and the relevant GIS databases were established.The global and local indicators of spatial autocorrelation analysis was carried out with GeoDa 1.6 software,and SaTScan 9.4 was used to describe the retrospective space time scan.Results A total of 6 960 cases were reported in Chaohu city from 2009 to 2015.The HFMD cases were aggregated in Chaohu City,and local indicators of spatial association analysis explored 14 regions of high-incidence clusters in 2011,2013 to 2015.Three statistically significant HFMD clusters were identified.HFMD mostly occurred in urban area.Conclusions HFMD is clustered geographically in Chaohu City.This study may provide clues about HFMD risk factors and provide theoretical basis for further prevention and control in Chaohu City.