基于灰色GM(1,1)模型对我国糖尿病患者死亡趋势预测

目的预测我国糖尿病患者死亡变化趋势,为糖尿病防控提供参考。方法收集2007-2018年我国糖尿病患者死亡率数据,运用灰色GM(1,1)模型进行预测分析。结果2007-2017年我国城市糖尿病患者死亡呈下降趋势,而农村糖尿病患者死亡呈明显上升趋势;城市、城市男性、城市女性、农村男性、农村女性5个变量所拟合灰色GM(1,1)模型C值均<0.35,且P值均>0.95,模型拟合精度为1级,农村变量拟合的灰色GM(1,1)模型C值为0.391,P值为0.9,模型拟合精度为2级;6个变量所拟合灰色GM(1,1)模型平均相对误差值分别为1.102%、1.020%、1.199%、1.177%、0.495%、0.698%。结论灰色GM(1,1)模型在我国糖尿病患者死亡趋势预测效果较好,能够为糖尿病防治提供参考依据。

Prediction of Mortality Trend of Diabetes Patients in China Based on Grey GM(1,1)Model

Objective To predict the mortality trend of diabetes patients in China from 2007 to 2018 so as to provide references for the prevention and control of diabetes.Methods The mortality data of diabetes patients in China from 2007 to 2018 were collected and analyzed using the grey GM(1,1)model.Results From 2007 to 2017,the mortality of diabetic patients in urban areas showed a decreasing trend,while the mortality of diabetic patients in rural areas showed a significant increasing trend.The C value of the grey GM(1,1)model fitted by the five variables of urban,urban male,urban female,rural male and rural female were all<0.35,the P value was>0.95,and the fitting accuracy of the model was 1.In contrast,the C value of the grey GM(1,1)model fitted by the rural variable was 0.391,P value was 0.9,and the fitting accuracy of the model was 2.The average relative errors of the GM(1,1)grey model fitted by the six variables were 1.102%,1.020%,1.199%,1.177%,0.495%and 0.698%,respectively.Conclusion The grey GM(1,1)model is effective in predicting the mortality trend of diabetic patients in China,and can provide references for the prevention and treatment of diabetes.