用圆形分布法探讨疫苗干预对麻疹发病季节性的影响

[目的]探讨麻疹流行的季节性规律及麻疹疫苗的干预对其流行高峰期的影响.[方法]采用圆形分布法.分析湖南省1951～1999年麻疹发病高峰日的变迁情况并对疫苗干预的不同时期的流行高峰日进行比较.[结果]从1951至1999年,划分的各个时期均存在麻疹发病高峰期,高峰日逐阶段后移达两个月江结论]疫苗干预可使麻疹发病高峰日后移,但不改变每年出现发病高峰季节的流行规律;圆形分布分析单峰型有周期性的疾病季节高峰特征,具有计算简单、描述直观的优点.

Influence of Measles Vaccine Intervention to the Seasonal Variation of Measles Morbility through Circular Distribu-tion Method

Objective To study the seasonal variation of measles epidemic and the influence of measles vaccine intervention to the peak periods. [Methods] Circular distribution method was used to analyse variation of the peak time of measles morbility from 1951 to 1999 in Hunan Province and compare the seasonal variation of measles morbility during the different periods of vaccine intervention. [Results] From 1951 to 1999,peak time of measles morbility existed in all the periods demarcated and retruded for 2 months gradually. [Conclusion] Vaccine intervention can make the peak time of measles morbility retrude, while not change the epidemic law that seasonal peak appear in every year. Circular distribution method can be used to study seasonal variation of diseases and has some advantages such as simple calculation and intuitive description in analysing the seasonal variation of diseases with single peak and cyclic change.