Novice Drivers' Risky Driving Behavior, Risk Perception, and Crash Risk: Findings From the DRIVE Study

Objectives. We explored the risky driving behaviors and risk perceptions of a cohort of young novice drivers and sought to determine their associations with crash risk.Methods. Provisional drivers aged 17 to 24 (n = 20 822) completed a detailed questionnaire that included measures of risk perception and behaviors; 2 years following recruitment, survey data were linked to licensing and police-reported crash data. Poisson regression models that adjusted for multiple confounders were created to explore crash risk.Results. High scores on questionnaire items for risky driving were associated with a 50% increased crash risk (adjusted relative risk = 1.51; 95% confidence interval = 1.25, 1.81). High scores for risk perception (poorer perceptions of safety) were also associated with increased crash risk in univariate and multivariate models; however, significance was not sustained after adjustment for risky driving.Conclusions. The overrepresentation of youths in crashes involving casualties is a significant public health issue. Risky driving behavior is strongly linked to crash risk among young drivers and overrides the importance of risk perceptions. Systemwide intervention, including licensing reform, is warranted.The overrepresentation of youths in crashes involving casualties is a significant public health issue in most high-income countries.^1,2 As a result, prevention of crashes by novice drivers is a key focus for many jurisdictions, policymakers, and researchers. The introduction of graduated driver licensing, which gradually introduces full driving privileges for novice drivers, has brought about significant reductions in crashes, particularly in settings where more stringent conditions such as restrictions on passenger numbers and night driving have been introduced.^3,4 Research on novice drivers'' risky behaviors and risk perceptions is crucial to understanding how this initiative can be improved or how complementary interventions can be developed.There is much to be learned about the impact of novice drivers'' risky driving and how it is associated with their increased risk of crash. Recent research confirms that certain risky driving behaviors are more prevalent among younger drivers than older drivers, especially among men.^5–12 These include high-level speeding and speeding for the thrill of it,^6,11,13–16 following too closely to the vehicle ahead,⁵ violating traffic rules,⁹ not using seatbelts,^17–19 using mobile phones while driving^20–22 (including text messaging^23,24), driving during high-risk nighttime hours,^2,25,26 and driving older vehicles.^14,27,28In addition, certain driving behaviors have been demonstrated to be of higher risk for young novice drivers than for experienced adult drivers; these include carrying peer passengers or multiple passengers^2,29–32 and driving under the influence of alcohol, even at low concentrations.^26,33,34Paradoxically, given higher levels of risk taking, young drivers are often found to be more aware of driving risks than drivers of other age groups, particularly regarding alcohol,^18,35–39 although young males tend to have poorer perceptions of risk than females.^{6,35,37,39–41} Nonetheless, young people who undertake or are exposed to risky driving behaviors tend also to perceive driving risks as low.^15,35,39,42 In a prevalence study conducted recently in Australia, McEvoy et al. reported that those who reported mobile phone use while driving regarded a range of risky driving practices as significantly less dangerous than those who did not report phone use.⁴³Young people''s risk perceptions, however, can be dependent on context. For example, although speeding per se or under usual conditions is typically viewed as risky,^6,39 speeding on a clear, dry day is not.⁶ Driving fast because one is in a hurry is considered not as risky as driving fast to test a car''s speed, whereas racing other cars ranks among the highest perceived risks.³⁵ Likewise, studies have found that the general public considers only small excess rates of speed (64 km/h in a 60-km/h zone and 105 km/h in a 100-km/h zone) to be acceptable¹⁸ but that high school students of driving age accept higher speeds: in one study, one quarter of students accepted 70 km/h or more in a 60-km/h zone as safe and one quarter accepted 120 km/h or more in a 100-km/h zone as safe if conditions were good.³⁷ In another study, when asked how much over a 60 km/h speed limit a driver would have to be going to be considered “stupid,” young drivers reported a significantly higher speed threshold than older drivers, but there were no differences in reported thresholds for a driver to be considered “irresponsible” or “criminal.”⁶Differences in young drivers'' perceptions of other risks have also been found. For example, ratings of perceived risk have increased from very low when peer passengers are in the car to higher ratings when passengers have been drinking alcohol, smoking marijuana, or are not wearing seatbelts to highest ratings when passengers are trying to get the driver to speed or are acting wild.³⁵ Regarding driving while using a mobile phone, hands-free use has been considered less risky than manual use^18,44 and answering a call, dialing, or text messaging as more risky than talking on a phone.^35,45Such findings raise questions about whether risk perception and risky driving behaviors are strongly related and whether either is directly associated with crashes. Few recent studies of novice drivers have explored these issues, particularly the utility of either risk perception or risky driving behaviors for predicting the risk of a crash. An earlier study conducted in Australia found that self-reported risky driving behaviors were linked to increased risk of crashes in the first year of driving, but this study did not examine the impact of risk perception on crash risk.⁴⁶ Our aim was to explore the risky driving behaviors and risk perceptions of a cohort of young, newly licensed drivers and to determine the associations between these factors and crash risk.