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| 膳食暴露定量评估模型及其变异性和不确定性研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 刘元宝,王灿楠,吴永宁,刘沛.膳食暴露定量评估模型及其变异性和不确定性研究[J].中国卫生统计,2008,25(1):7-9,14. |
| 作者姓名： | 刘元宝 王灿楠 吴永宁 刘沛 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 东南大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计系,210009 2. 东南大学公共卫生学院营养与食品卫生系 3. 中国疾病预防控制中心营养与食品安全所 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金 , 国家科技支撑计划 |
| 摘 要： | 目的探讨膳食暴露评估概率性模型及如何量化其变异性和不确定性。方法运用Montecarlo方法量化变异性，运用Bootstrap方法量化不确定性。结果概率性模型比目前应用的点估计模型更合理，Montecarlo方法和Bootstrap方法有效量化了变异性和不确定性。结论建议应用概率性模型进行膳食暴露评估以提高膳食暴露定量评估水平。 |
| 关 键 词： | 膳食暴露 变异性 不确定性 Monte carlo Bootstrap 膳食暴露 定量评估 评估模型 变异性 定性研究 Uncertainty Variability Analysis Exposure Assessment Model 水平 估计模型 应用 结果 Bootstrap Monte carlo 运用 方法 不确定性 |
Quantitative Model of Dietary Exposure Assessment and Analysis for the Variability and Uncertainty |
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| Liu Yuanbao, Wang Can- nan, Wu Yongning, et al, Nanjing.Quantitative Model of Dietary Exposure Assessment and Analysis for the Variability and Uncertainty[J].Chinese Journal of Health Statistics,2008,25(1):7-9,14. | |
| Authors: | Liu Yuanbao Wang Can- nan Wu Yongning Nanjing |
| Abstract: | Objective To discuss the probabilistic model of dietary assessment and how to quantify the variability and uncertainty. Methods Monte carlo and Bootstrap methods were employed for the simulation of the variability and uncertainty, respectively. Results The results of probabilistic model approached to the true values and were more reasonable than that of the point estimate model. The variability and uncertainty were effectively quantified by the Monte carlo and Bootstrap methods. Conclusion The probabilistic model should be applied to the assessment of the di- etary exposure. |
| Keywords: | Dietary exposure Variability Uncertainty Monte carlo Bootstrap |
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