应用ARIMA模型对麻疹发病的预测及分析

目的 应用ARIMA模型对麻疹发病数预测并探讨其可行性,为防控麻疹疫情提供依据。 方法 采用SPSS17.0对乌鲁木齐市2009-2015年麻疹月发病数的资料建立ARIMA模型,并预测2016年麻疹月发病数。 结果 建立模型ARIMA(0,0,1)(1,1,0)₁₂是合适的,且模型检验自相关系数在±0.5之间,预测值与实际值有较高的吻合度。 结论 ARIMA模型能很好的拟合乌鲁木齐市麻疹发病数趋势,预测效果可靠。

Application of ARIMA model to forecast and analysis of measles incidence

Objective To forecast the measles incidence by ARIMA model, to verify its practicability, and to provide evidence for prevention and control of measles epidemic. Methods SPSS17.0 software was used to establish ARIMA model about the monthly incidence of measles in Urumchi during 2009-2015, and then the monthly incidence of measles in 2016 was forecasted. Results The established ARIMA (0,0,1)(1,1,0)₁₂ model was satisfactory and practicable, and the correlation coefficient of model test was within ±0.5. The predicted values agreed well with the actual values. Conclusions It is practical to apply the approach of ARIMA model to predict the incidence of measles in Urumchi.