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| 灰色系统GM（1,1）模型在预测肝癌死亡率中的应用 | |
| 引用本文： | 孙昌盛 薛常镐. 灰色系统GM（1,1）模型在预测肝癌死亡率中的应用[J]. 现代预防医学, 1994, 21(1): 32-34 |
| 作者姓名： | 孙昌盛 薛常镐 |
| 作者单位： | 福建医学院卫生统计教研室，福建省卫生防疫站 |
| 摘 要： | 本文应用ＧＭ（１，１）灰色模型对福建省同安县１９８７～１９９０年肝癌死亡率时间序列进行分析并对９１年肝癌死亡率作近期预测。同安县肝癌死亡率９１年预测值为３８．７８／１０万与实测值绝对误差为０．３６，最大残差为０．３６９，相对误差为０．９７％，均小于５％，拟合效果较好。 |
| 关 键 词： | 灰色模型 预测 肝肿瘤 死亡率 |
APPLICATION OF GREY MODEL(1,1) IN ANTICIPATING THE MORTALITY OF LIVER CANCER |
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| Sun Changsheng,et al.. APPLICATION OF GREY MODEL(1,1) IN ANTICIPATING THE MORTALITY OF LIVER CANCER[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 1994, 21(1): 32-34 | |
| Authors: | Sun Changsheng et al. |
| Affiliation: | Sun Changsheng, et al. |
| Abstract: | Grey series model(1,1) was applied to study the mortality of liver cancer of Tongan county, Fujian Provienc in 1987-1990 and to anticipate its mortality of liver cancer in 1991. The result shows that the predicted mortality of liver cancer in 1991 is 38. 78/105. It's absolute error to actual value is 0.36,and relative error is 0.97%. Grey model is a useful tool of anticipation. |
| Keywords: | Grey Model Motality of liver cancer Anticipateion |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ | |