应用Logistic回归和ROC曲线分析生化指标对胎盘早剥早期诊断价值

目的:建立并利用数学模型,定量分析孕妇血清中CA125、甲胎蛋白和胎盘生长因子水平,探讨其对胎盘早剥早期诊断的价值。方法:采用微粒酶免疫分析法(MEIA)和双抗体夹心ELISA法检测孕妇血清中CA125、甲胎蛋白和胎盘生长因子水平。应用Logistic回归筛选诊断胎盘早剥的相关指标,建立Logistic回归方程,并通过ROC曲线进行分析。结果:CA125和胎盘生长因子两项指标运用回归方程为P=1/〔1+e-(2.329+0.067X1-0.061X2)〕,其灵敏度98.7%,特异度96.7%,ROC曲线下面积99.5%(P<0.01)。结论:运用Logistic回归和ROC曲线综合分析生化指标预测胎盘早剥具有一定的临床价值,有助于提高诊断的科学性和准确性。

Values of analyzing biochemical indicators with logistic regression and ROC curve for early diagnosis of placental abruption

Objective:To establish and use mathematical model to quantitatively analyze serum levels of CA125,alpha fetoprotein,and placental growth factor in pregnant women,and explore the values for early diagnosis of placental abruption.Methods:MEIA method and double antibody sandwich ELISA were used to detect the serum levels of CA125,alpha fetoprotein,and placental growth factor;the related indicators of placental abruption were diagnosed by logistic regression analysis,logistic regression equation was established,and ROC cure was used for analysis.Results:The regression equation of CA125 and placental growth factor was P=1/(1+e-(2.329+0.067X1-0.061X2)),the sensitivity and specificity were 98.7% and 96.7%,respectively,the area under ROC curve was 99.5%(P<0.01).Conclusion:Analyzing biochemical indicators with logistic regression and ROC curve for predicting placental abruption has a certain clinical value,which is helpful to improve the diagnostic scientificalness and accuracy.