湖南省2012和2013年肺结核GIS空间流行病学分析

目的 了解湖南省肺结核空间分布规律,确定肺结核重点防疫区域,为制定肺结核防治对策与措施提供科学依据。方法 收集湖南省2012年1月-2013年12月新涂阳肺结核患者登记的相关信息和数据,应用ArcGIS 10.2软件制作肺结核空间分布地图,并采用空间自相关和趋势面分析探索其发病的聚集性和热点区域。结果 湖南省2012和2013年新涂阳肺结核患者登记率分别为40.6/10万和36.4/10万;全局自相关分析结果显示,2012和2013年湖南省新涂阳肺结核患者登记率的Moran'I统计量分别为0.86和0.58(Z=17.89、12.06,均P<0.05),均存在空间聚集性;局部空间自相关结果显示,2012年凤凰县、泸溪县、吉首市、花垣县、保靖县、永顺县、武陵源县、古丈县、永定区、桑植县、慈利县等11个县(市、区)存在高高聚集,2013年凤凰县、泸溪县、吉首市、花垣县、保靖县、武陵源县、古丈县、永定区、桑植县、慈利县等10个县(市、区)存在高高聚集;趋势面分析结果显示,2012和2013年湖南省肺结核总体分布由西至东呈一条直线逐渐降低,由南至北2012年呈明显"U"形,2013年呈轻微"U"形。结论 2012和2013年湖南省分别有11和10个县(市、区)存在新涂阳肺结核患者登记率高高聚集,新涂阳肺结核患者登记率在湖南省西部地区高于东部地区,南北地区高于中部地区。

Spatial distribution of tuberculosis in Hunan province between 2012-2013:analysis with geographic information system

Objective To explore spatial distribution characteristics of tuberculosis(TB)in Hunan province from 2012 to 2013 using geographic information system(GIS)for identifying key areas of TB prevention and optimal allocation of public health resources in Hunan province.Methods The data on TB morbidity from January 2012 through December 2013 in Hunan province were collected.The spatial distribution map for reported TB cases was built by using the software GIS 10.2.Spatial autocorrelation and trend surface analysis were applied to explore aggregation and hot region of TB incidence.Results The registration rate of smear-positive TB was 406/100000 and 364/100000 for the year of 2012 and 2013 in Hunan province,respectively.Global spatial autocorrelation showed that there was a spatial aggregation in TB incidence in Hunan province(2012:Moran'I index=0.86,Z=17.89,P<0.05;2013:Moran'I index=0.58,Z=12.06,P<0.05).Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the patients were highly aggregated in 11 and 10 counties in 2012 and 2013.Trend surface analysis showed that the overall TB distribution was decreased linearly from the west to the east of Hunan province,and an U-type curve could be used to describe the TB distribution from the south to the north.Conclusion TB patients were highly aggregated in 11 and 10 counties in 2012 and 2013,and TB incidence in western region was higher than in eastern region,while the incidence was higher in south and north region than in central region in Hunan province.