广东省流感监测数据早期预警效果分析

目的利用已有的流感监测数据建立广东省流感监测预警体系,进行早期预警监测。方法采用2004~2006年14所哨点医院门诊每周就诊的流感样病例(ILI)占门诊病例总数百分比数据,使用控制图法、历史限法和指数加权移动平均法,对2007年的流感样病例就诊百分比(ILI%)数据进行拟合,分析早期预警的效果。结果控制图法显示,2007年流感疫情从第14周起进入流行季节,一直持续到第34周后流行结束;历史限法显示,2007年流感疫情较平稳,没有高于近年历史同期水平;指数加权移动平均法显示,2007年流感活动在第24周有明显的增加。结论2007年预警信号和实际流感疫情基本吻合,综合利用3种方法进行流感疫情早期预警,结果比较科学和可靠。

Study on early warning based on influenza surveillance data in Guangdong province

ObjectiveTo build the earlywarning systemof Guangdong province based on influenza surveillance data.MethodsAccording to theweekly influenza-like illness consultation rate(ILI%)of fourteen sentinel hospitals in Guangdong province from 2004 to 2006, the surveillance data of 2007 were fitted into models for early warning of inflecenza with threemethods including control chartmethod, historical linit method and exponentially weighted moving average(EWMA) method.ResultsThe control chartmethod showed that the influenza activity began to increase atweek 14 in 2007 and lasted twenty weeks The result of historical linit method showed that the influenza activity had no significant increase in 2007 compared with the data of sinilarperiods in recent years.The EWMA method showed that significant increase of influenza incidence occurred at week 24 compared with forecast values based on the recent trend.ConclusionThe sinulative early warning signal in 2007 is approxinately consistent with the actual influenza incidence, which means that the method is scientific and reliable.