2005-2017年新疆喀什地区耐药结核病传播动力学模型研究与应用

目的 基于2005-2017年新疆喀什地区结核病数据,建立耐药结核病传播动力学模型,为喀什地区结核病防治提供理论支持和数量依据。方法 根据结核病的传播机制,建立耐药结核病传播动力学模型,并根据模型预测疾病的波动趋势,利用敏感性分析,提出防治防控的有效措施。结果 建立的耐药结核病传播动力学模型拟合效果较为理想,喀什地区结核病传播的基本再生数R0≈3.7192,利用该模型对新疆喀什地区2018-2028年结核病的流行趋势进行预测,发现结核病不会消亡仍会继续流行。参数的敏感性分析发现,提高自身免疫力,缩短结核病的治疗期,降低耐药患者的发病率是控制结核病流行最有效的方法。结论 新疆喀什地区结核病呈现持续流行趋势,相关部门应加强对结核病的防治控制结核病的流行。

Application of transmission dynamic model of drug-resistant tuberculosis in Kashgar,Xinjiang, 2005-2017

To establish the transmission dynamic model of drug-resistant tuberculosis based on the reported data of tuberculosis from 2005 to 2017 in Kashgar, Xinjiang, and to provide theoretical support and quantity basis for the disease control in Kashgar. Methods According to the transmission mechanism of tuberculosis, the transmission dynamic model of drug-resistant tuberculosis was established, and the fluctuation trend of the disease was predicted according to the model. Sensitivity analysis was used to propose effective measures for prevention and control. Results This model provided a good match, and the basic reproductive number of tuberculosis in Kashgar was R0≈3.7192. The model was used to predict the prevalence of tuberculosis from 2018 to 2028, and it suggested that tuberculosis would not go extinction but prevail in Kashgar. By sensitivity analysis of the parameters, it found that improving autoimmunity, shortening the treatment period and reducing the incidence of drug-resistant patients were the most effective methods to control the prevalence of tuberculosis. Conclusion Tuberculosis in the Kashgar takes on the feature of long-term prevalence. The relevant departments should strengthen the prevention and control of tuberculosis.