| 采用自回归滑动平均模型预测2011年门诊量 |
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| 引用本文： | 贾翠平,李静. 采用自回归滑动平均模型预测2011年门诊量[J]. 中国病案, 2011, 12(9): 52-53 |
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| 作者姓名： | 贾翠平 李静 |
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| 作者单位： | 航天中心医院医疗统计室,北京市,100049 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的拟合适合门诊量时间序列资料的预测模型,预测我院2011年门诊量。方法采用ARIMA模型对门诊量进行模型拟合。结果拟合模型参数具有统计学意义,方差估计值为8.97,AIC=1366.888,SBC=1373.676。对模型进行白噪声残差分析,拟合优度统计量表表明最终拟合的ARIMA模型为：（1-B）（1-B12）Yt=-11.7601＋（1-0.8527B）（1-0.3947B12）et。结论 ARIMA模型适用于门诊量的时间序列模型拟合,结果显示模型预测值与实际值相符合,在没有外来干预因素影响的情况下,门诊量将会继续上涨。
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| 关 键 词： | ARIMA模型 门诊量 预测 |
To Apply Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model for Forecast the Number of Outpatient Service in 2011 |
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| Jia Cuiping,Li Jing. To Apply Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model for Forecast the Number of Outpatient Service in 2011[J]. Chinese Medical Record, 2011, 12(9): 52-53 |
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| Authors: | Jia Cuiping Li Jing |
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| Affiliation: | Jia Cuiping,Li Jing,Medical Statistical Office,Aerospace Central Hospital,Beiing 100049,China |
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| Abstract: | ForecastObjectives to fit forecast model that suitable for outpatient service time sequence materials for forecasting the number of outpatient service in 2011 in our hospital.Methods to apply ARIMA model for model fitting of outpatient service number Results the model fitting parameter has statistical meaning,estimator of variance is 8.97,AIC=1366.888,SBC=1373.676.We have a white noise residual analysis on model.The goodness of fit statistical number table shows the final fit ARIMA model is(1-B)(1-B12)Yt=-1... |
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| Keywords: | ARIMA model Number of outpatient service Forecast |
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