全面二孩政策对育龄女性生育意愿和生育计划的影响研究

目的 研究全面二孩政策对育龄女性生育意愿和生育计划的影响，探索提高生育率的可行性策略。方法 采用秩和检验和卡方检验比较生育意愿和生育计划的变化和差异，混合效应模型用于分析生育意愿和生育计划的影响因素。结果 就生育意愿而言，育龄女性2014年平均理想子女数量为1.96个而2016年为2.08个，有医疗保险者理想子女数量较无医疗保险者多0.09个（P＜0.05）。就生育计划而言，政策前有二孩计划的研究对象占30.41%而政策后为22.86%；有医疗保险(OR = 1.60)、父母双方都在(OR = 2.16)、理想子女数量(OR = 3.19)越多的女性生育二孩的可能性越大。结论 全面二孩政策后育龄女性生育意愿增高而生育计划水平降低；扩大医疗保险覆盖率可同时提高生育意愿和生育计划，而增强女性生育意愿，加快建设0～3岁婴幼儿照护服务体系将有助于促进育龄妇女的生育计划。

Study on the influence of universal two-child policy on fertility intention and the second child plan among women of childbearing age

The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of universal two-child policy on fertility intentionand the second child plan among women of childbearing age, and to explore feasibility strategies to increase the fertility ofwomen of childbearing age. Methods Rank sum test and chi-square test were used to compare the changes and differencesof fertility intention and the second child fertility plan, and to explore their influencing factors by mixed -effects model.Results In terms of fertility intention, the average number of ideal children for women of childbearing age was 1.96 in 2014and was 2.08 in 2016, and the number of ideal children of those with medical insurance was 0.09 more than those withoutmedical insurance (P<0.05). As far as the second child planning, 30.41% of the research subjects had two-child birth planbefore universal two -child policy, but the rate decreased to 22.86% after the policy. The women with medical insurance(OR=1.60), both parents alive (OR= 2.16), with higher fertility intention (OR=3.19) were more likely to birth two children.Conclusion After the universal two-child policy, women of childbearing age had a higher willingness to have children, butwere less likely to have the second child fertility plan. Expanding the coverage of medical insurance can increase the fertilityintention and the second child fertility plan. Raising the fertility intention of female and speeding up the construction of 0-3years old infant care service system may be helpful to enhance the second child fertility plan of women of childbearing age