利用乘数法结合男男同性社交软件开展深圳市男男性行为者规模估计研究

目的 估计深圳市男男性行为者（Men who have sex with men, MSM）规模，为进一步开展艾滋病疫情估计提供人群规模数据。方法 采用滚雪球抽样的方法，在深圳市MSM活动的酒吧、夜总会、浴室等场所，招募384名研究对象。采用乘数法公式（N=r×m）估计深圳市MSM规模。通过与男性社交软件Blued所属软件公司合作，线上统计连续1周内各天登陆过软件的人数，即为乘数法中的参数r；通过开展现场调查，收集调查对象在连续1周内各天登陆过Blued 6.5.6软件的比例，该比例的倒数即为乘数法中的参数m。结果 深圳市MSM规模估计为130050人（95%CI:127517~132583）。有深圳市户籍的MSM人数为23669（95%CI=23208~24130），无深圳市户籍的MSM人数为106381（95%CI=104309~108453）；流动的MSM人数为13525（95%CI=13262~13789），常住的MSM人数为116525（95%CI=114255~118794）；性取向为同性的MSM人数为88044（95%CI=86329~89759），性取向为异性的MSM人数为7153（95%CI=7013~7292），性取向为双性的MSM人数为25100（95%CI=24611~25589），性取向为不确定的MSM人数为9884（95%CI=9691~10076）；为同性提供过商业性服务的MSM人数为16907（95%CI=16577~17236）。结论 利用乘数法结合男性社交软件估计MSM的人群规模具有一定的可行性和可信性，值得推广。

Population size of men who have sex with men in Shenzhen,China using multiplier method combined with gay geo-social networking software

To estimate population size of men who have sex with men(MSM)in Shenzhen，China in order toprovide evidences for AIDS epidemic estimation.Methods Snowball sampling method was used to recruit 384 MSM inShenzhen city in gay－bar，nightclub，shower room，etc.Multiplier method was chosen to estimate population size of MSM inShenzhen，China.Through the cooperation with Blued 6.5.6 software affiliated company，online statistics of the number ofMSM who log in to Blued 6.5.6 software every day for a continuous week was taken as the parameter of r in multipliermethod.A cross－sectional study was conducted among MSM to collect their login information in each day for one week duringthe same time period and then the reciprocal of login proportion of MSM respondents was calculated as the parameter of m.Finally the population size of MSM was estimated using calculation formula:N=r×m.Ｒesults The population size of MSMin Shenzhen，China was about 130 050(95%CI:23 208～24 130)，among whom 23669(95%CI:23 208～24 130)werehousehold registered MSM and 106 381(95%CI:104 309～108 453)were non－household registered MSM.A number of 13525(95%CI:13 262～13 789)were migrant MSM and 116 525(95%CI:114 255～118 794)were permanent residents.There were about 88 044(95%CI:86 329～89 759)gay men compared to 25 100(95%CI:24 611～25 589)bisexual men，7 153(95%CI:7 013～7 292)heterosexual MSM and 9 884(95%CI:9 691～10 076)men with uncertain sexual orientation.A total of 16 907(95%CI:16 577～17 236)MSM reported having provided commercial sexual service for men.ConclusionUsing multiplier method to estimate population size of MSM combined with gay geo－social networking software seems to bepracticable and credible which is worth popularization.