镇江市大气颗粒物（PM10和PM2.5）对居民每日死亡率影响的时间序列分析

目的 评价镇江市大气颗粒物（PM10和PM2.5）短期暴露对居民每日死亡率的影响。方法 采用基于广义相加模型的时间序列分析方法评估大气颗粒物对镇江市居民死亡率的影响。结果 PM10和PM2.5对人群死亡影响存在滞后效应和累积滞后效应，对女性和≥65岁人群的影响更为显著。PM10和PM2.5分别在累积滞后1 d和2 d时效应最大，PM10和PM2.5每升高10 μg/m3，居民死亡率分别增加0.52%（95%CI:0.10%～0.94%）和0.79%（95%CI:0.14%～1.43%）。结论 镇江市大气颗粒物与居民的超额死亡风险显著相关。

Time-series analysis on the acute mortality affected by ambient particulate matter in Zhenjiang between 2015 and 2018

The aim of this study was to analyze the short-term effect of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than or equal to 10 μg (PM10) and aerodynamic diameter of less than or equal to 2.5 μg (PM2.5) on daily mortality in Zhenjiang city. Methods Application of a time -series analysis in generalized additive model was applied to evaluate the association between ambient particulate matter and daily mortality. Results There were lag effect and cumulative lag effect between particulate matter and daily mortality. Significant effects of exposure to particulate matter were found on daily mortality, as well as in elderly (≥65 years) and female population. An increase of 10 μg/m3 in 1-day averaged PM10 and 2 -day averaged PM2.5 were associated with 0.52% (95% CI: 0.10% -0.94% ) and 0.79% (95% CI: 0.14% -1.43% ) of increase in daily total mortality. Conclusion Our results suggested that exposure to ambient particulate matter was significantly associated with the increase of excess risks on total mortality in the residents of Zhenjiang.