The impact of falling rates of edentulism

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of both population age changes and falling edentulism rate on the denture market in three European countries. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Detailed information on the rate of edentulism for only three European countries (Finland, Sweden, and the UK) was available. For the UK and Sweden, published predicted rates of edentulism for the future decades were used, whereas predictions for Finland were computed using published edentulism rates. Edentulousness in one jaw was also predicted and included in the computation. Demographic projections were taken from government agency websites. RESULTS: The denture market will decrease in the three countries. Sweden, where edentulism is already low, will experience the largest percentage decrease (60%) over 20 years, but, in absolute number, the change will be of smaller magnitude than that in the UK and Finland. The range of projections for Finland was large, reflecting the difficulty of predicting trends with incomplete information. Within the limitations of this study's design, the impact of population age changes will not increase the denture market in Europe, even with the most pessimistic projections for edentulism rate. CONCLUSION: The complete denture market in Europe will fall despite changing age demographics. The falling rates are large enough to markedly affect future patterns of treatment provision and training.