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| 人群分组法预测人口 | |
| 引用本文： | 莫与琳,苏小妮. 人群分组法预测人口[J]. 数理医药学杂志, 2008, 21(3): 268-270 |
| 作者姓名： | 莫与琳 苏小妮 |
| 作者单位： | 右江民族医学院05级8班,百色,533000;右江民族医学院05级9班,百色,533000 |
| 摘 要： | 用一种人性化的理念去建立预测人口的数学的人口模型。把人群细分为6组,综合考虑各组的死亡率或生育率等因素,用数学演绎推理的方法推导出预测人口的数学模型。该模型运用较简单的数学方法去反映人口的变化规律,适应于短期人口的预测。 |
| 关 键 词： | 人口预测 人群分组 短期预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-4337(2008)03-0268-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-12-20 |
Forecast Population by Grouping People |
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| Mo Yulin. Forecast Population by Grouping People[J]. Journal of Mathematical Medicine, 2008, 21(3): 268-270 | |
| Authors: | Mo Yulin |
| Affiliation: | Mo Yulin, et al (Youjiang Medical College for Nationnalities, Baise 533000 ) |
| Abstract: | Many mathematic models are employed to forecast population. This paper looked for another way to do it, establishing a mathematic model to forecast population with humanized ideas. We divided the people into six groups, and then used mathematic deduction to educe the mathematic model of population forecasting based on the factors as death rate or birthrate in each group generally. The model reflected the rule of population variation by using a simpler math theory and can be used for short-term population forecasting. |
| Keywords: | population forecasting grouping people short-term forecasting |
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