The rise and fall in incidence of malignant mesothelioma from a British Naval Dockyard, 1979-1999

BACKGROUND: The incidence of malignant mesothelioma in Britain is predicted to rise over the next 15-25 years because of past failure to protect the workforce against inhalation of asbestos. In British Naval dockyards, alternative insulation materials and respiratory protection were introduced from the mid-1960s. Aims This study was carried out to investigate the effects of these control measures on mesothelioma deaths in dockyard workers. METHODS: Cases of mesothelioma of the pleura and peritoneum between 1979 and 1999 in workers from the Devonport Naval Dockyard, south-west England, were sought from coroners' and medico-legal records. RESULTS: Three hundred and one cases were identified, 7% peritoneal. The peak incidence occurred in 1991 with 25 cases per annum (quadratic model fit R(2) = 74.2%, P < 0.001) and we predict that by 2003 the incidence will fall to fewer than five cases per annum. The mean time between first exposure and presentation was 48.5 years 95% confidence interval (CI) = 47.3-49.8], but this was significantly shorter in the more heavily exposed trades, when compared with the less heavily exposed (42 years, 95% CI = 39.0-45.0, versus 49.5 years, 95% CI = 48.2-50.9). Those with higher exposure were also at significantly greater risk of peritoneal disease (P < 0.023, Fisher's exact test). CONCLUSION: The reduction in incidence of mesothelioma is greater than can be accounted for by reduction in numbers of dockyard workers over the last 50 years. Changes in insulation materials and improved industrial hygiene measures introduced into the Devonport Dockyard from the mid-1960s have resulted in an earlier decline in the incidence of malignant mesothelioma than that predicted for the British workforce as a whole.