我国新生儿死亡率预测分析

目的:探讨我国新生儿死亡率的变化规律,对新生儿死亡率进行预测,为相关机构采取相应干预措施提供科学的理论依据。方法:利用ARIMA(4,2,2)模型,对我国1991～2009年新生儿死亡率进行分析。结果:预测2010～2012年我国新生儿死亡率分别为8.52‰、7.44‰、6.52‰,相对误差较小,精度较高,外推预测结果可信。结论:我国新生儿死亡率虽然呈现逐年下降趋势,但与发达国家相比尚有差距,应深入剖析新生儿死亡的原因及相关因素,采取积极可行的干预措施及策略,使新生儿的死亡率降到最低。

Prediction and analysis of the neonatal mortality in China

Objective:To explore the change trend of neonatal mortality in China,predict the neonatal mortality,provide a scientific and theoretical basis for the relevant departments to adopt interventional measures.Methods:ARIMA(4,2,2) model was used to analyze the neonatal mortalities from 1991 to 2009 in China.Results:The predicted neonatal mortalities in China from 2010 to 2012 were 8.52‰,7.44‰,and 6.52‰,respectively,the relative error was small,the precision was high,the extrapolation and prediction results were reliable.Conclusion:The neonatal mortality in China shows a decreasing trend year by year,but there is gap compared with developed countries,the causes and related factors of neonatal death should be analyzed deeply,active and feasible interventional measures and strategies should be taken to reduce the neonatal mortality to the lowest level.