中国2008年肿瘤发病和死亡隋况估计及预测

目的 估计2008年中国肿瘤发病和死亡的情况,并预测今后20年发病数和死亡数.方法 根据中国36个肿瘤登记点的数据以及全国第三次死因调查(2004-2005年)的结果,估计2008年恶性肿瘤的发病和死亡情况,预测2010、2015、2020、2025和2030年的发病数和死亡数.结果 中国按世界人口标化发病率排前10位的癌症是肺癌(33.5/10万)、胃癌、肝癌、乳腺癌、食管癌、结直肠癌、子宫体癌、子宫颈癌、白血病和脑瘤/神经肿瘤(4.4/10万);按世界人口标化死亡率排前10位的癌症依次为肺癌(28.7/10万)、肝癌、胃癌、食管癌、结直肠癌、乳腺癌、子宫颈癌、白血病、脑瘤/神经肿瘤和子宫体癌(2.4/10万).癌症高发人群为40岁以上人群,尤其是男性,40岁以后癌症的发病率和死亡率均超过女性.在今后20年,中国恶性肿瘤的发病数和死亡数均呈现上升趋势.结论 中国恶性肿瘤的发病和死亡情况越来越严重,以肺癌、乳腺癌和消化道肿瘤为主,重点防控对象为40岁以上男性中老年人群.

Estimation and prediction on cancer related incidence and mortality in China, 2008

Objective To estimate the incidence and mortality rates of cancers in China in 2008.Methods Data from 36 cancer registry sites in China and from the Third National Death Survey in China (2004-2005) were used to estimate the incidence and mortality of cancer in China in 2008 by using mathematical models.Prediction on cancer incidence and mortality in the next 20 years was carried out.Results According to the age-standardized incidence rates,the top cancer sites were lung,stomach,liver,breast,oesophageal,colorectal,corpus uterine,cervical,leukemia and brain tumor.According to the age-standardized mortality rates,the top cancers in China were lung cancer,liver cancer,stomach cancer,oesophageal cancer,colorectal cancer,breast cancer,cervical cancer,leukemia,brain tumor and corpus uterine cancer.Cancer happened more frequently among people older than 40 years,particularly among males.Data related to prediction showed that the incidence and mortality of cancer in China would gradually increase in the next 20 years.Conclusion Both incidence and mortality of cancers in China had been increasing,with the most common cancers appeared to be lung,breast and digestive tract cancers,in China.People older than 40 years should be under specific care to receive prevention and care on cancer,with males in particular.