麻醉恢复室低氧血症预测模型的建立与校验

目的 探讨影响麻醉后监测治疗室(PACU)低氧血症发生的关键因素,以期建立预测PACU低氧血症发生的模型,为临床预测PACU低氧血症发生的风险提供帮助.方法 选择中南大学湘雅三医院2014年1月至2015年8月收入PACU的患者,应用二元Logistics回归筛选PACU低氧血症的独立危险因素,完成模型的初步建立,并以...

Development and validation of the predictive model for hypoxemia in postanesthesia care unit

Objective To explore the risk factors of hypoxemia in postanesthesia care unit(PACU), and establish the predictive model for hypoxemia in PACU, which could make significances in clinical research.
Methods The clinical data from January 2014 to August 2015 was collected in the Third Xiangya Hospital of Central South University. Independent risk factors of hypoxemia in PACU by the binary Logistics regression were screened out and the primary predictive model was established. A separate cohort of patients in PACU from September 2015 to March 2016 was enrolled to validate the predictive model.
Results There were 497 patients and 20 variables were enrolled in the binary Logistics regression and 107 patients were validated by the primary predictive model. Logistics regression showed that age, BMI, prone position, and application of irrigating solution were independent risk factors of hypoxemia in PACU (P < 0.05). The risk predictive model of hypoxemia in PACU was established according to those factors. The model was validated by Hosmer-Lemeshow test and the area under the curve of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) was 0.775, so the predictive model for hypoxemia in PACU tested well.
Conclusion The risk predictive modele stablished in our study can predict the risk of hypoxemia in PACU well and have good efficacy.